Week 1’s heavyweight card: Jackson vs. Allen, revenge, and real stakes in September
The NFL doesn’t tiptoe into 2025. It kicks the door in. Baltimore at Buffalo, Sunday night, September 7, 8:20 p.m. ET at Highmark Stadium, is a season-launcher with January energy. Two MVPs, two fan bases expecting confetti, and a scoreboard that might not get much rest.
The market respects both sides. The Ravens are slight 1.5-point road favorites with a total of 50.5. Books also have both clubs in the inner circle of contenders: co-favorites at +650 to win Super Bowl 60 and tied for the shortest AFC title odds at +325. That’s as bullish as it gets in Week 1.
There’s history here, too. Baltimore’s last meeting with Buffalo ended in playoff frustration. The rematch brings a different wrinkle: a retooled Ravens run game built to lean on defenses for four quarters, matched against a Bills group riding an 11-game home winning streak, the second-longest in franchise history.
This is the marquee quarterback duel of the opening weekend. Lamar Jackson, the 2023 MVP and 2024 runner-up, will test a Buffalo secondary still reshaping without Tre’Davious White. Josh Allen, last season’s MVP, counters with the arm talent and power running that made him a weekly problem for defensive coordinators. The quarterback star power is obvious; the trenches may decide it.
Baltimore’s edge starts on the ground. The Ravens graded better than Buffalo in multiple offensive categories last season, especially in run blocking and early-down efficiency. Add Derrick Henry as the finisher and it’s not hard to picture how their script opens: downhill runs, zone reads with Jackson, then play-action shots after the safeties creep. The red-zone matchup could be the pivot—Buffalo ranked 30th last season in red-zone drive rate allowed, and Henry’s short-yardage conversion history fits that weakness like a glove.
Buffalo’s answer sits on Allen’s shoulders. Analyst projections peg him around 238 passing yards, but those numbers rarely capture his high-leverage rushing impact on third down and in the red zone. If the Bills find chunk plays early—especially off play-action and Allen’s second-reaction magic—they can force Baltimore to play a bit faster than it prefers, which is exactly how you neutralize a punishing run game.
Special teams could bend the game script in subtle ways. Baltimore is handing kicking duties to rookie Tyler Loop, the biggest unknown on the roster. The Bills will be without Tyler Bass, which means an emergency replacement on a loud, windy field in prime time. That’s not just a note for kickers—it nudges both coaches toward more fourth-down aggression and two-point tries, especially between the 30s and 40s where marginal field-goal confidence drops.
There’s also the coverage ripple effect from White’s absence. The Bills can still roll help and challenge outside routes, but when you’re facing Jackson, every extra body you assign to coverage is one fewer body in run fits and option responsibilities. That’s where Baltimore’s option game and RPOs get uncomfortable fast—hesitation by a linebacker or safety is all it takes for a five-yard run to become 20.
Odds, props, and how it plays out
Let’s translate the numbers. Ravens -1.5 suggests little separation on a neutral field. The total at 50.5 says both offenses should find answers. And the futures pricing (+650 Super Bowl, +325 AFC) tells you bookmakers see these two on a similar tier, with the opener more about matchups than talent gaps.
The Bills have their own leverage point: tempo and explosives. If Buffalo dictates pace, Baltimore’s run-game advantage thins out because possessions shrink and every Ravens drive has to finish in touchdowns, not just time of possession. That’s where Josh Allen’s dual-threat nature matters most—his scrambling converts third-and-7 into first-and-10, keeps drives alive, and exposes Baltimore to more snaps against his arm.
The Ravens’ clearest path looks familiar: win early downs on the ground, control the middle of the field with option looks, and cash red-zone trips with Henry. If Baltimore forces the Bills into a heavier box and single-high looks, Jackson’s deep shots can arrive in rhythm rather than desperation.
One under-discussed angle: fourth-quarter fatigue. Week 1 can be sloppy, but it’s also when tackling form and gap discipline fade late. When that happens, Henry’s yards-after-contact profile becomes a problem, and so does Jackson’s acceleration on QB keepers. Buffalo’s linebackers and safeties will need disciplined eyes for all 60 minutes.
Player props line up with the chess match:
- Josh Allen passing yards: 233.5. If you like the Bills side or the over, this correlates. It likely needs a couple of deep strikes or sustained drives.
- Lamar Jackson rushing yards: 47.5. Against man coverage and pressure looks, his legs are a release valve. One scramble can swing this number.
- Derrick Henry rushing yards: 84.5. If Baltimore leads at halftime, this gets live. Short-yardage carries and fourth-quarter salting help.
- Derrick Henry touchdown: -160 to score, +375 for two. Red-zone usage and Buffalo’s 2024 red-zone defense profile point to volume chances inside the 10.
There’s also a special-teams tax in play. With a rookie kicker on one side and a replacement on the other, both offenses may go for it more on fourth-and-short between the 35 and 45. That can inflate total points through extra possessions or shorten fields after failed tries. It can also create odd scoring sequences—missed kicks, two-point attempts, and field-position swings that punish conservative play-calls.
Coaching adjustments will show up early. Expect Baltimore to stress Buffalo’s rules with motion to identify leverage, then mix in counter looks once the Bills overplay the mesh. Buffalo can flip the script by hurrying to the line after explosives, running Allen on designed keepers when the Ravens widen their ends, and taking free access throws to keep Baltimore out of its pressure packages.
The home streak matters. Eleven straight wins in Orchard Park isn’t noise; crowd volume, cadence disruption, and communication issues for the road team stack up over four quarters. The flip side: the Ravens are built to travel. Running games and defense survive noise better than timing-heavy pass attacks. That’s why the spread is sitting inside a field goal.
So what’s the likely rhythm?
- Script A (Ravens tilt): Baltimore controls early downs, wins time of possession, and Henry leans on a tired front late. Jackson adds one shot play over the top when safeties creep. Baltimore by 3–7.
- Script B (Bills tilt): Allen hits explosives, forces a faster pace, and Baltimore’s run-game advantage gets capped by game state. Bills by 1–6, total edges higher.
- Script C (special teams chaos): Missed field goals and fourth-down swings turn the middle quarters into a roller coaster. One turnover decides it.
My lean with the information on hand: the number is fair, the matchup is tight, and special teams variance is real. Buffalo’s 11-game home heater plus Allen’s late-down running give the Bills a thin edge in a close finish, but Baltimore’s run script is the counter that makes any margin fragile.
Predictions and picks:
- Spread: Bills +1.5 (would play to +1; moneyline is live for small plus money).
- Total: Slight lean Over 50.5 given fourth-down aggression and red-zone profiles, but volatile with the kicking situation.
- Player props: Jackson over 47.5 rush yards fits most game scripts; Henry anytime TD (-160) is chalk but logical; Allen passing over 233.5 correlates with any Bills cover.
Whatever side you’re on, expect a December feel in Week 1. The AFC is too crowded for freebies, and tiebreakers start now. This one has the ingredients of a one-score game that swings on a fourth-and-2 decision or a scramble nobody can coach against. That’s the charm of Ravens vs Bills—two teams good enough to win it all, and not much space between them.