On Sunday Night Football, the Green Bay Packers travel to AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, to face the Dallas Cowboys at 8:20 p.m. ET on September 28, 2025. The matchup, airing on NBC, carries a 6.5‑point spread favoring Green Bay and an over/under hovering around 47 points, according to the major bookmakers.
Why this game matters early in the season
The Packers (2‑1) are looking to rebound from a shocking 13‑10 loss to the Cleveland Browns, while the Cowboys (1‑2) are desperate to snap a 31‑14 drubbing by the Chicago Bears. Green Bay’s 77.5% implied win probability makes them clear favorites, but the Cowboys have a habit of pulling off late‑season upsets when the odds look stacked against them.
Both clubs entered the week with contrasting conference records – the Packers are 2‑0 against NFC foes, whereas Dallas sits at 1‑2. That discrepancy, combined with a perfect 5‑0 record for Green Bay at AT&T Stadium, adds an extra layer of intrigue.
Player storylines that could tilt the balance
A headline‑grabbing subplot features linebacker Micah Parsons. Traded to Green Bay just before the season opened, Parsons returns to the Cowboys’ home turf for the first time, bringing 1.5 sacks and a reputation as a game‑changer. "Facing my former teammates is a weird mix of excitement and motivation," Parsons told reporters after practice.
On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys will be without star wide receiver CeeDee Lamb. A high‑ankle sprain suffered against Chicago sidelines him for the night, and Dallas is 0‑3 all‑time when Lamb is inactive – a stark reminder of his impact. "We’re going to have to find another way to move the ball," Cowboys offensive coordinator said, shrugging at the loss.
Betting landscape and expert forecasts
Bookmakers have kept the spread steady at 6.5 points since the lines opened, and the total points marker has hovered between 46.5 (CBS Sports) and 47.5 (Fox Sports). Interestingly, the Under has been a hot ticket for both teams, going 5‑1 combined this season.
- Packers odds: -300 moneyline (77.5% implied probability)
- Cowboys odds: +260 moneyline
- Spread: Packers -6.5
- Over/Under: 47.0 (average of Fox and CBS)
Experts are leaning heavily toward a Green Bay victory. Fox Sports projects a 29‑18 final, while CBS Sports foresees an even wider gap at 41‑13. SportsLine analyst R.J. White, riding a 77‑32 streak with his NFL picks, backs the Packers to cover the spread and recommends the Over.
Historical context and head‑to‑head record
All‑time, Green Bay leads the series 22‑17, and the Packers have claimed victory in each of the last five meetings, two of which were postseason showdowns. Their dominance at AT&T Stadium is spotless – five wins and zero losses.
Dallas, meanwhile, has struggled to protect its home field when key offensive weapons sit out. The team's defensive unit will have to step up, especially against a Packers offense that averaged 27.6 points per game in the first three weeks.
What’s at stake for the NFC race
Should the Packers win, they’ll improve to 3‑1 and solidify a potential early lead in the NFC North. A loss would push them to 2‑2, opening the door for rival Chicago and Minnesota to gain ground.
For the Cowboys, a victory would restore them to .500 and keep their playoff hopes alive, but a second loss drops them to 1‑3, making the rest of the season an uphill battle.
Looking ahead: Key takeaways and next steps
Regardless of the final score, the game offers a litmus test for both squads. Green Bay’s ability to rebound from the Browns upset will be gauged by how quickly they adjust their game plan without star tight end Rob Gronkowski (still listed as questionable). Dallas must find a way to replace Lamb’s route‑running precision, perhaps leaning on veteran wideout Michael Gallup.
Fans can expect a high‑stakes defensive showdown, especially with Parsons poised to exploit familiar offensive schemes. If the Packers’ offense clicks, they could pull away early and force Dallas into a catch‑up scenario that rarely ends well for the Cowboys.
Frequently Asked Questions
How will CeeDee Lamb's injury affect the Cowboys' offense?
Lamb’s absence removes the team’s primary deep‑threat receiver, reducing the vertical passing game by roughly 30%. Dallas will likely rely more on short routes and the running game, but historically they have struggled to score above 20 points without him.
What makes Micah Parsons a game‑changer for the Packers?
Parsons brings a blend of pass‑rush speed and run‑stopping instincts. His familiarity with the Cowboys’ offensive line gives Green Bay an inside edge, and his 1.5 sacks so far suggest he can pressure quarterback Dak Prescott and force turnovers.
Why do bookmakers keep the 6.5‑point spread steady?
Betting action on both sides has been balanced, and the Packers’ recent performance against conference rivals supports a modest margin. The spread reflects confidence in Green Bay’s defense containing the Cowboys’ run game while allowing the offense to stay within reach.
What are the implications for the NFC North if the Packers win?
A win puts Green Bay at 3‑1, giving them a clear advantage over Chicago (2‑2) and Minnesota (2‑2). It also boosts morale ahead of the critical divisional matchups in weeks 5 and 6.
How reliable are the over/under predictions for this game?
The combined over/under average of 47 points aligns with both teams’ season‑long scoring trends. However, weather conditions inside the dome and the absence of Lamb could push total points lower, making the Under a tempting play for cautious bettors.